Table of Contents

UK Personal Lending 2007 (Review Report) - This report provides a five-year forecast for the consumer credit market under three different scenarios and a detailed analysis of the challenges and issues lenders in the unsecured lending market are facing.

Product Code: dmfs2080

Price: $4495

Publication Date: 15-May-2007


Overview

Introduction

Following a muted performance in 2005, the consumer credit market delivered a worse performance in 2006. Indeed, after more than a decade of strong growth, the consumer credit market has now slowed. Moreover, to add to their woes, lenders are facing a number of other challenges. So, what lies ahead for unsecured lenders?

Scope

Highlights

Constrained by various factors such as a weaker labor market, increasing consumer debts and low consumer confidence, gross lending amounted to £207.8 billion at the end of December 2006, representing a contraction of 4.5 per cent on the 2005 level (£217.5 billion).

Overdrafts are an important income stream for banks, especially as current accounts are not particularly profitable in themselves. However, overdrafts are receiving increased regulatory. While regulation is working towards serving the consumer better, it is likely that the end result will see banks lose a part of this income stream.

Going forward, the challenges being faced by unsecured personal lenders suggest that many will be willing to place more emphasis on increasing their profitability, even if that means sacrificing volume. Indeed, the lending environment is only going to get tougher and the issue of high levels of personal indebtedness is not going to disappear.

Reasons to Purchase


Overview

1

Catalyst

1

Summary

1

Table of Contents

2

Table of figures

3

Table of tables

4

Introduction

5

What is this report about?

5

Who is the target reader?

5

How to use this report

5

The UK Consumer Credit Market in 2006 and its Future Outlook

7

The consumer credit market delivered a poor performance in 2006

7

Advances dropped once again, though balances grew by a small degree

7

A number of factors can be attributed to the consumer credit market's poor performance

8

Despite a well performing UK economy in 2006, the consumer credit market did not follow suit

8

Successive base rate rises had a slowing effect on borrowing over 2006

9

Despite full employment, unemployment increased slightly over 2006, contributing to the consumer credit market's contraction

10

Though the housing market outperformed expectations in 2006, the consumer credit market still faltered

10

Further analysis highlighted that most individual product lines performed badly over 2006

11

In terms of balances outstanding, most products contracted except for retail finance and personal loans

11

Fluctuations in the share of the total consumer credit market show personal loans to have gained significantly

13

In terms of gross advances, all consumer credit products contracted except for overdrafts

14

Fluctuations in performance saw credit cards and overdrafts gain more share of the total consumer credit market

16

Meanwhile, point of sale finance continued to struggle

18

Motor finance had another poor year in 2006

18

Retail finance also had another poor year in 2006

23

What's next for the consumer credit market?

26

Datamonitor's forecasting model assesses the relationship of macroeconomic factors with respect to consumer credit products

26

Under the neutral view, new lending in the consumer credit market falls in 2007 and picks up thereafter

26

The consumer credit market will reach £229.4 billion in 2011

28

In terms of individual product lines, virtually all products will suffer in 2007 but will pick up thereafter

28

Under a pessimistic view of the economy, the consumer credit market will contract significantly in 2007 before picking up again in 2008

30

The consumer credit market will dip to a low of £199.8 billion in 2007 under a pessimistic scenario

31

In terms of individual product lines, retail and motor finance both continue their decline, with overdrafts performing best of all

31

Under an optimistic view of the economy, the consumer credit market will begin prospering again

33

The consumer credit market will expand at an annual average rate of 3.0 per cent to reach £238.1 billion in 2011

34

In terms of individual product lines, retail finance will be the only underperforming product

34

An Overview of the Overdrafts Market in the UK

36

Overdrafts are a key part of banks' current account packages

36

Overdrafts have grown strongly over the last five years

36

Overdrafts are an important income stream for banks

37

In addition, they contribute to those who switch bank accounts

37

For example, Alliance & Leicester continues to up the ante to win current account customers through its introductory offers on overdraft fees

38

Moreover, overdrafts are forecast to continue strong growth

39

But the overdrafts market is static compared to others

40

There are four main pricing models for overdrafts

40

It is surprising that individual risk-based pricing for overdrafts is not used to a greater degree

42

Prices on overdrafts do not tend to change very often

42

Such a condition can be attributed to complex nature of current accounts, but consumer apathy to switching current accounts is also to blame

44

There has been increasing scrutiny surrounding overdrafts, which will most likely have a significant effect on banks and consumers

44

First came the OFT investigation on credit card default fees

44

Now the OFT is to investigate the overdrafts market

44

A number of banks have been removing overdraft "buffers" and raising interest rates

45

Moreover, the investigation could have large consequences for the current account industry and consumers

45

Northern Ireland has also seen its current account and overdrafts market challenged

46

The Competition Commission found a number of significant issues with overdrafts

47

It advises that a number of remedies be applied to redress the market

47

The investigation is likely to conclude in a loss of income for banks in Northern Ireland

48

In addition, there is concern that too many consumers are using overdrafts for long-term borrowing instead of other cheaper lending products

48

Student Lending in the UK: Assessing Risk in an Environment of Rising Consumer Debt

49

Students are an important customer segment for banks

49

Students as a customer segment: banking on the future via cross-selling

49

Such a strategy is understandable given the increasing number of students in the UK

49

Lending is a large part of the student portfolio

50

Many banks offer a range of products, though the acquisition focus is on the current account

50

But lending is the more profitable product to sell

51

However, students are getting into greater and greater debt

52

The cost of attending university is becoming more expensive

52

As such, student debt has increased considerably over time

53

The majority of debt is in the form of Government loans, though overdrafts and credit cards are highly important too

53

Moreover, the average student beginning their course in 2006 will be at least £15,000 in debt by the time they finish

54

Given the more difficult economic environment and the increasing number of bankruptcies and IVAs, is student lending worth the risk?

55

Consumers are experiencing a more difficult economic time now

55

Such a situation is of worry to lenders who are already dealing with significant bad debt

55

While graduates are likely to earn more than non-graduates, they are not immune to economic difficulties

57

Because of significant student debt, there are suggestions that those under 30 are not big spenders on unsecured lending products

57

Moreover, even if students are better customers in the long-run, will they be loyal to their first current account provider?

58

Students continue to be viewed as a good investment, but banks are taking a number of precautions with student lending

59

In general, lenders are sharing more data in order to reduce bad debt

59

Lenders are pushing for Student Loans Company data to be shared

59

The Student Loans Company has become involved

60

The DTI is now holding a consultation over such "hidden data"

60

More importantly, lenders must be sure to lend responsibly

61

Customer Acquisition Strategies in the UK Personal Lending Market

62

The typical personal loan customer has a number of traits

62

Personal loan holding differs by age group and income band

62

Age group segmentation highlights that customers in the 25 to 34 age bracket are those most likely to hold a personal loan

62

Income band segmentation highlights that low income earners are the least likely to have a personal loan

63

The typical personal loan customer is likely to take out a loan of between £5,000 and £9,999

64

Customers aged between 18 and 24 years old tend to apply for smaller ticket loans

64

Unsurprisingly, higher income groups have a higher tendency to borrow greater amounts

65

The overwhelming majority of personal loan customers have only one personal loan

66

There is no clear trend in terms of age segmentation

67

The higher the household income, the higher the probability of the personal loan customer holding more than one loan

68

The typical length of a personal loan is five years

68

It is worth highlighting that many personal loan customers do not see their loan commitment to the end

69

Unsecured personal loans are used for a vast array of purposes

70

Car purchase, home improvements and debt consolidation remain the major reasons given by customers for taking out a personal loan

70

Car purchase remains the most mentioned purpose of an unsecured personal loan

71

Home improvements and debt consolidation came second and third respectively in terms of most mentioned usage

71

Analysis by age group and income band highlights a few interesting trends in terms of usage

71

A number of lenders do design their marketing material based on the specific uses of a personal loan

73

Lloyds TSB went one step further by producing a used car buyers' guide to attract unsecured personal loan customers

74

A number of factors drive customers when choosing a particular lender

75

While the majority of customers do not shop around, a significant proportion do so before purchasing a personal loan

75

Analysis by age group highlights that those aged above 65 are the least likely to research the unsecured personal loan market

76

The wealthier customers are, the more likely they are to shop around

77

Given that a significant number of customers do shop around, it is crucial for lenders to understand the reasons why customers choose a particular lender

78

Brand awareness provides a competitive advantage in the unsecured personal loan market

81

Direct channels, other than face-to-face, are increasingly being used by customers

83

Face-to-face distribution remains the channel of choice for a significant number of customers

83

Most personal loan providers with a branch presence follow a multi-channel strategy

84

Further analysis of the data highlights that young customers and the lower income households are more likely to visit the lender

85

Young customers and the elderly are more likely to visit a branch

85

Lower income households have a higher tendency to visit a lender to take out a personal loan

85

Competitive Dynamics in the UK Personal Loan Market

87

2005 saw a subdued performance from many lenders

87

Most lenders saw a rise in balances outstanding over 2005

87

Meanwhile, the five largest banking groups strengthened their market share over 2005 in terms of gross advances

90

Moreover, 2006 was another difficult year for personal lending

92

Personal loans also experienced a tough year

92

Indeed, most lenders experienced a difficult H1 2006

92

Not all players grew their balances over the half year

92

Moreover, many lenders saw a drop in new lending volumes

95

Unsurprisingly, lenders are feeling a number of competitive pressures

95

Competition is as tough as ever

95

The top competitors are spending more on advertising in terms of share

96

Lenders are having to look at other ways to compete successfully

98

Differentiation is key

98

But ultimately, the structure of pricing will have to change in the long-run

99

Moreover, bad debt continues to be a challenge when looking to beat the competition

99

Bad debt remains an issue for lenders

99

Such a situation has impacted upon lenders' competitive strategies and results

101

Pricing Strategies in the UK Personal Loan Market 2007

102

Price remains the acquisition weapon of choice in the UK unsecured personal loan sector

102

Price is a key product differentiator for both lenders and customers

102

Consequently, the average price of an unsecured loan has fallen considerably

102

Indeed, intense price competition in the UK unsecured personal loan market has led to a significant fall in average prices

103

However, lenders are adjusting their pricing models to a difficult lending environment

106

Rising personal debt has dealt a big blow to lenders' acquisition and profitability model

106

Consumers are increasingly resorting to debt solutions as they fail to keep up with repayments

107

Lenders' profitability has been affected significantly, as many consumers have started to default on repayments

109

It is therefore hardly surprising that many unsecured providers are adapting their acquisition and pricing model to reflect changes in the lending environment

109

Lenders' pricing models are changing as lenders are adapting their acquisition models

110

Will we see more lenders focusing on profitability rather than just increasing market share?

113

The great majority of unsecured loan providers practice a risk-based pricing model

113

Personal pricing has emerged in the last year or so

114

Furthermore, there are other examples where lenders are designing their pricing strategies to increase profitability

116

Going forward, pricing will remain aggressive but profitability will be equally as important, if not more so

117

Trends in Affinity Partnerships and Co-branding in the UK Personal Lending Market

119

Affinity and co-branding are two types of partnership in the personal lending market

119

While sharing similarities, affinity marketing and co-branding are separate business models

119

Affinity partnerships took off during the 1990s

120

There are a number of benefits for lenders who enter affinity partnerships

120

There are a significant number of large and small affinity partnerships in the UK

120

Co-branding also developed rapidly during the 1990s

121

Issuers have a range of reasons to get involved in the co-branding credit card market

121

There are a large number of co-branded credit cards available in the UK

122

Yet each is experiencing diverging trends

122

Affinity partnerships are stagnating at best

122

Affinity credit cards are losing ground to co-branded cards

122

Moreover, affinity personal loans have been in decline for a number of years now

123

Indeed, affinity partnerships are not as competitive as other schemes because of their inherent disadvantages

124

While co-branded cards continue to expand

124

Co-branding is expanding because it allows issuers to differentiate their offering in a saturated market

124

Such trends are likely to continue in the short to medium term

125

Affinity credit cards are likely to continue to stagnate

125

Moreover, the affinity personal loan model is in danger

125

For example, HBOS is gradually streamlining its affinity program

125

MBNA is also looking to wind down its dependence upon affinity partnerships

125

Meanwhile, co-branded credit cards are likely to increase in popularity

126

Yet issuers and merchants must think critically about whether or not this is the right opportunity for them

126

Personal Lending: Successful Entry Strategies in Western Europe

127

Lenders are increasingly coming up against a saturated UK consumer credit market

127

The UK consumer credit market is contracting

127

The UK consumer credit market is also highly competitive

127

Unsurprisingly, lenders' margins are falling in the saturated consumer credit market

128

Indeed, the UK consumer credit market is the most mature of all of Western Europe

128

Consumer credit plays a more important role in the UK economy than it does in any other Western European market

128

Moreover, in terms of new lending, the UK has performed poorly in comparison to the majority of the Western European markets

129

Consequently, UK lenders should look into higher growth European markets to expand

130

A number of international players have further expanded their operations in Western Europe

130

In particular, there remain opportunities in the Spanish consumer credit market

131

The Spanish consumer credit market continues to expand

131

A number of foreign lenders have become involved

132

The market continues to hold potential

132

As an example, Barclaycard is taking advantage of this growing market

132

Barclaycard is growing successfully in Spain

132

Barclaycard entered the Spanish market directly

134

Barclaycard's product range is designed to appeal to a range of customer segments

134

Barclaycard is likely to expand further in Spain by offering a wider range of products

135

In addition, the Turkish consumer credit market remains attractive to foreign acquisition

135

Turkey is the fastest growing consumer credit market in Western Europe

135

A number of reasons can explain Turkey's phenomenal growth

136

A number of international players have developed a significant presence in the market

136

As an example, GE Money now has a 25.5 per cent stake in Garanti Bank

137

Garanti Bank is a major player in the Turkish consumer credit market

137

By making such an acquisition, GE Money now has claim to a growing business in this market

138

But there are inherent risks in entering such a market

138

APPENDIX

139

Supplementary data

139

The UK Consumer Credit Market in 2006 and its Future Outlook

139

An Overview of the Overdrafts Market in the UK

140

Student Lending in the UK: Assessing Risk in an Environment of Rising Consumer Debt

141

Customer Acquisition Strategies in the UK Personal Lending Market

143

Competitive Dynamics in the UK Personal Loan Market

146

Pricing Strategies in the UK Personal Loan Market 2007

148

Trends in Affinity Partnerships and Co-branding in the UK Personal Lending Market

153

Personal Lending: Successful Entry Strategies in Western Europe

154

Definitions

156

General definitions

156

Affinity partnership

156

APR

156

Bank of England base rate

157

Balances outstanding

157

CAGR

157

CCJ

157

Co-branded card

157

Consumer credit

157

Current account

157

Gross advances

157

IVAs (Individual Voluntary Arrangements)

157

OFT

158

Overdraft

158

Student

158

Definitions of point of sale motor and retail finance products

158

Motor finance products available at the point of sale

159

Retail finance products available at the point of sale

160

Methodology

161

Forecasting methodology

162

Choice of economic variables

162

Model outputs

162

Bespoke scenario based forecasting

162

Further reading

163

European consumer credit reports

163

UK consumer credit reports

163

Relevant links

163

Ask the analyst

165

Datamonitor consulting

165

Disclaimer

165

List of Tables

 

Table 1: Balances outstanding and gross advances in the consumer credit market, 2002-2006

8

Table 2: Consumer credit balances outstanding by product, 2002-2006

12

Table 3: Market share of consumer credit balances outstanding by product line, 2002-2006

14

Table 4: Consumer credit gross advances split by product, 2002-2006

15

Table 5: Market share of gross advances in the consumer credit market by product line, 2002-2006

17

Table 6: New and used car POS motor finance balances outstanding, 2002-2006

19

Table 7: New and used car POS motor finance gross advances, 2002-2006

21

Table 8: New car finance gross advances by product line, 2002-2006

22

Table 9: Used car finance gross advances by product line, 2002-2006

22

Table 10: Retail finance balances outstanding by product line, 2002-2006

24

Table 11: Retail finance gross advances by product line, 2002-2006

25

Table 12: Forecast performance of the consumer credit market drivers under the neutral scenario, 2005-2011f

27

Table 13: Consumer credit forecasts under a neutral view of the economy, 2006-2011f

29

Table 14: Forecast performance of the consumer credit market drivers under the pessimistic scenario, 2005-2011f

30

Table 15: Consumer credit forecasts under a pessimistic view of the economy, 2006-2011f

32

Table 16: Forecast performance of the consumer credit market drivers under the optimistic scenario, 2005-2011f

33

Table 17: Consumer credit forecasts under an optimistic view of the economy, 2006-2011f

35

Table 18: The main banks compete for students by offering interest-free overdrafts, November 2006

51

Table 19: Value of personal loan when originally taken out, split by age group, January to June 2006

65

Table 20: Value of personal loan when originally taken out, split by income band, January to June 2006

66

Table 21: How many personal loans do you currently have?, by age group, January to June 2006

67

Table 22: How many personal loans do you currently have?, by income band, January to June 2006

68

Table 23: Usage of an unsecured personal loan, January to June 2006

70

Table 24: Usage of an unsecured personal loan, split by age group, January to June 2006

72

Table 25: Usage of an unsecured personal loan, split by income band, January to June 2006

73

Table 26: How did you actually arrange this loan?, split by age group, January to June 2006

85

Table 27: How did you actually arrange this loan?, split by income band, January to June 2006

86

Table 28: Unsecured personal loan balances outstanding and market share by group, 2004-2005

89

Table 29: Unsecured personal loan gross advances and market share by group, 2004-2005

91

Table 30: Unsecured personal loan balances outstanding and market share by group, H2 2005-H1 2006

94

Table 31: Advertising personal loan spend by the leading competitors, 2005-2006

97

Table 32: Typical interest rates offered by a sample of unsecured personal loan providers, Dec 2005 and March 2007 (Table 1 of 2)

111

Table 33: Typical interest rates offered by a sample of unsecured personal loan providers, Dec 2005 and March 2007 (Table 2 of 2)

112

Table 34: Unsecured personal loan providers' pricing strategies, March 2007

114

Table 35: Typical APR charged by a sample of lenders at branches and online, March 2007

116

Table 36: Typical APR for online loans from a sample of parent companies and their direct subsidiaries, March 2007

117

Table 37: Credit cards in issue in the UK by type, 2001-2005

123

Table 38: 12 month year-on-year change in UK house prices, January 2002-December 2006

139

Table 39: Overdrafts gross advances and balances outstanding, 1997-2006

140

Table 40: Datamonitor's overdrafts forecasts, 2006-2011f

140

Table 41: Banks' overdraft interest rates, November 2002-November 2006

141

Table 42: The number of students in the UK, 2000-2005

141

Table 43: Average student debt upon finishing a three-year university course in the UK, 2000-2006

142

Table 44: Percentage of student in debt by product, 2005

142

Table 45: Number of bankruptcies and IVAs, Q3 2005-Q3 2006

143

Table 46: How many other companies did you obtain information from before choosing your current personal loan provider?, split by age group, January to June 2006

143

Table 47: How many other companies did you obtain information from before choosing your current personal loan provider?, split by income band, January to June 2006

144

Table 48: Can you tell me why you chose this institution for this loan?, January to June 2006

145

Table 49: Half-year growth and market share in terms of balances outstanding by group, H2 2005-H1 2006

146

Table 50: Debt write-offs for unsecured lending (excluding credit cards), March 2002-December 2006

147

Table 51: End month weighted average interest rate on a £10,000 and a £3,500 unsecured personal loan and the base rate, Jan 2001 to March 2007 (Table 1 of 3)

148

Table 52: End month weighted average interest rate on a £10,000 and a £3,500 unsecured personal loan and the base rate, Jan 2001 to March 2007 (Table 2 of 3)

149

Table 53: End month weighted average interest rate on a £10,000 and a £3,500 unsecured personal loan and the base rate, Jan 2001 to March 2007 (Table 3 of 3)

150

Table 54: The differential between the base rate and the average interest rate of a £10,000 and £3,500 unsecured loan, January 2001 to March 2007 (Table 1 of 3)

150

Table 55: The differential between the base rate and the average interest rate of a £10,000 and £3,500 unsecured loan, January 2001 to March 2007 (Table 2 of 3)

151

Table 56: The differential between the base rate and the average interest rate of a £10,000 and £3,500 unsecured loan, January 2001 to March 2007 (Table 3 of 3)

152

Table 57: Number of providers split by various typical interest rate brackets, December 2005 and 2006, March 2007

153

Table 58: Number of cards and value of transactions for affinity and co-branded credit cards, 2001-2005

153

Table 59: Western European markets' consumer credit balances outstanding as a proportion of their GDP, 2005

154

Table 60: Growth in consumer credit gross advances in Western European countries, 2001-2005

155

Table 61: Consumer credit gross advances in Spain, 2001-2005

155

Table 62: Number of credit cards in Spain in issue by competitor, 2005

156

Table 63: Consumer credit gross advances in Turkey, 2001-2005

156

List of Figures

 

Figure 1: Advances dropped by 4.5 per cent in 2006, though balances grew by a small amount, 2002-2006

7

Figure 2: Consumer confidence continued to fall through 2006, May 2004 -December 2006

9

Figure 3: The housing market performed significantly above expectations in 2006, January 2002-December 2006

11

Figure 4: Unsecured personal loans experienced the strongest growth over the last five years, 2002-2006

12

Figure 5: Unsecured personal loans have gained an extra share of 6.8 per cent in the last five years while credit cards, motor and retail finance have all lost share, 2002-2006

13

Figure 6: Except for overdrafts, new lending on all consumer credit products suffered from a poor performance in 2006, 2002-2006

15

Figure 7: Credit cards and overdrafts have gained share while unsecured personal loans have lost share, 2002-2006

17

Figure 8: The share of used car finance within the motor finance market declined slightly in 2006, 2002-2006

19

Figure 9: Gross lending in both the new and used car finance markets declined in 2006, 2002-2006

20

Figure 10: Reversing the trend somewhat, two of three retail finance product lines saw growth in balances outstanding over 2006, 2002-2006

23

Figure 11: Gross advances for all product lines within retail finance have followed a downward trend since 2004, 2002-2006

25

Figure 12: The consumer credit market will steadily increase and reach £229.4 billion in 2011f, 2006-2011f

28

Figure 13: Under the pessimistic scenario, the consumer credit market will drop to a low of £199.8 billion in gross advances in 2007, 2006-2011f

31

Figure 14: Under an optimistic view of the economy, the consumer credit market will grow very strongly over the next five years, 2006-2011f

34

Figure 15: Overdrafts advances and balances have grown strongly, particularly over the last five years, 1997-2006

37

Figure 16: Alliance & Leicester's introductory offer on overdrafts is currently the most competitive in the market, November 2006

39

Figure 17: Datamonitor forecasts that overdrafts will continue to grow strongly, 2006-2011f

40

Figure 18: Banks use four different overdraft pricing models, November 2006

41

Figure 19: Authorized overdraft interest rates have not changed significantly over a five year period, November 2002-Novermber 2006

43

Figure 20: There are an increasing number of students in the UK, 2000/1-2004/5

50

Figure 21: Banks start by acquiring the student as a current account customer, followed by short and long-term cross-selling aims, 2006

52

Figure 22: Student debt has risen significantly since 2000, 2000-2006

53

Figure 23: The majority of student debt is in the form of Government loans, but overdrafts and credit cards are also important, 2005

54

Figure 24: Debt solutions have continued to become more popular in England and Wales, Q3 2005-Q3 2006

56

Figure 25: Customers between the age of 25 and 44 are most likely to take out a personal loan, January to June 2005 and 2006

63

Figure 26: Customers earning less than £15,499 are the least likely to hold a personal loan, January to June 2005 and 2006

64

Figure 27: Nine per cent of unsecured personal loan holders have more than one personal loan, January to June 2006

67

Figure 28: Five years is the most likely term for a typical personal loan, January to June 2006

69

Figure 29: Barclays and Northern Rock promote the specific uses of unsecured personal loans, 2006

74

Figure 30: Lloyds TSB has produced a used car buyers' guide to aid its acquisition of personal loan customers, 2006

75

Figure 31: Customers in the age bracket 65+ are the least likely to research the unsecured personal loan market before taking out an unsecured personal loan, January to June 2006

77

Figure 32: The wealthier customers are, the more likely they are to shop around, January to June 2006

78

Figure 33: Having an existing relationship remains the major reason for choosing a personal loan provider, January to June 2006

79

Figure 34: Halifax is the most mentioned lender by surveyed customers when asked about providers they would consider taking a new personal loan with, January to June 2006

82

Figure 35: Face-to-face remains the channel of choice for customers, January to June 2006

84

Figure 36: Barclays Bank and Northern Rock were the market's biggest winners over 2005 in terms of balances outstanding, 2004-2005

88

Figure 37: The top five lenders gained share over 2005 in terms of gross advances, 2004-2005

90

Figure 38: The first half of 2006 was tough on a large number of lenders, even in terms of balances outstanding, H2 2005-H1 2006

93

Figure 39: Debt write-offs on unsecured lending (except credit cards) has continued to rise, March 2002-December 2006

100

Figure 40: Interest rates in the unsecured personal loan market are dynamic, January 2001 to March 2007

103

Figure 41: The differential between the base rate and the average interest rate of an unsecured loan has fallen over the years, January 2001 to March 2007

104

Figure 42: The majority of lenders offer a typical interest rate below the seven per cent mark, December 2005 and 2006, March 2007

105

Figure 43: The average UK adult owed £4,522 in unsecured personal debt as at the end of 2006, 2002-2006

107

Figure 44: Both the number of IVAs approved and bankruptcy orders have risen significantly since 2005, 2002 and 2006

108

Figure 45: General characteristics of affinity partnerships and co-branding, 2007

119

Figure 46: Co-branded credit cards continue to expand while affinity credit cards have stagnated recently, 2001-2005

123

Figure 47: The UK is the most mature of Western European consumer credit markets as a proportion of GDP, 2005

129

Figure 48: From 2001 to 2005, new lending in the UK has been slower than most European consumer credit markets, 2001-2005

130

Figure 49: Consumer credit in Spain has witnessed a solid expansion, 2001-2005

131

Figure 50: La Caixa and BBVA dominate the Spanish credit card market, but Barclaycard is now fourth in terms of number of cards in issue, 2005

133

Figure 51: Barclaycard Spain now offers a range of credit cards in order to appeal to different customer segments, October 2006

135

Figure 52: Consumer credit gross advances are rising rapidly in Turkey, 2001-2005

136

Figure 53: Point of sale product aggregations used within this report

159


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