Introduction

Erosion of the multibillion dollar angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) class began in 2010 when losartan generics entered the US market. A multitude of antihypertensive fixed-dose combinations have recently been launched in an attempt to secure revenue streams.

Features and benefits

• Forecast leading antihypertensive brands in the 2011–20 period
• Quantify the sales potential late-stage pipeline products
• Assess the impact of key patent expiries, such as Novartis’s Diovan (valsartan)
• Determine the impact of recent clinical trial results and ongoing trials

Highlights

ARB patent expiries will hurt the US market most where extremely aggressive generic uptake occurs, as seen with Merck & Co.’s Cozaar/Hyzaar which was rapidly reduced to a fraction of its former value. Similar steep patent cliffs are forecast for other ARB brands in the US including Diovan/Diovan HCT 2012 and Benicar/Benicar HCT

Resistance to generic erosion and the growth of antihypertensive fixed-dose combinations incorporating ARBs will result in Japan becoming the largest of the seven major markets for antihypertensives as the US declines.

Despite efforts to protect its extremely successful hypertension portfolio, Novartis stands to suffer great losses from 2012 when Diovan loses patent protection in the US. Datamonitor forecast a strong negative impact on valsartan-containing fixed-dose combinations. Growth of Tekturna (aliskiren; Novartis) has not been enough to offset the damage.

Your key questions answered

• Use the Datamonitor patient-based forecast to quantify total market size, and sales at country, class, molecule, and brand levels
• Identify which brands will grow in the 2011–20 forecast period and which markets are more receptive to growth
• Use volume data to understand overriding market trends