Datamonitor’s quarterly consumer credit outlook supplies the latest forecasts for lending up to 2015 based on the most up-to-date statistics. It also analyzes the context in which the market has operated in recent months, and discusses the likely impact of external factors on market performance in 2011 and beyond.
Features and benefits
- Provides data on the size of UK consumer credit market, at the total level and by product line, for both gross advances and balances outstanding.
- Assesses past performance and future prospects for the credit card, personal loan, overdraft, retail and motor finance lines over the next few years.
- Provides Datamonitor's central gross lending forecasts for the consumer credit market, as well as forecasts for best-case and worst-case outcomes.
- Includes an accompanying interactive Excel model, presenting data in an easily accessible format.
The outlook for consumer credit lending in 2011 is subdued. Worsening prospects for economic growth, unemployment, inflation and house prices have led to a severe weakening in consumer confidence in recent months, significantly reducing the inclination of consumers to borrow.
Following a difficult year in 2009, gross lending did recover modestly in 2010, with year-on-year increases seen in Q2, Q3 and Q4. Unsecured loans saw the biggest improvement, experiencing year-on-year growth in the final quarter for the first time since 2005. In contrast, retail finance has fallen year-on-year for eight successive quarters.
More lenders than not reported an improvement in losses due to default on unsecured lending in Q4 2010. This was the first improvement since Q1 2008. Write-offs on credit cards rose slightly to £1.2bn in Q4, but are still well below the peak of £2.1bn in Q2. Write-offs on unsecured personal loans also appear stable.
Your key questions answered
- Compare your performance in 2010 to the market as a whole.
- Help to plan your strategy by estimating market performance over the next few quarters and years.
- Understand the impact of macroeconomic and regulatory factors upon the behaviour of both lenders and borrowers.