The Future of the South Eastern Europe Natural Gas Market

  • DATAMONITOR VIEW
    • CATALYST
    • SUMMARY
  • CONTENTS
    • Segmentation of the natural gas market
    • Status quo
      • Natural gas demand: Mediterranean responsible for Europe’s demand growth
      • Natural gas supply: Italy, Spain and Turkey are optimal import routes
    • Current changes
      • Change drivers/barriers: fear of Russian dependence
      • Planned changes: planned pipelines would span all demand hot zones
    • Industry outlook
      • Natural gas demand/supply hot zones
      • Supply/demand forecasts to 2020 for key countries
      • Changes to product and pricing: LNG more important if pipelines fail
    • This report divides Europe along logistics boundaries rather than by geopolitical positioning
      • Europe will be split by natural gas access routes: Europe will be split by natural gas access routes:
  • ANALYSIS
    • European demand profile: recession had little impact on overall demand growth
    • Western Europe: demand has stagnated completely during the recession
    • South Eastern Europe: growth has been continuous and rapid
    • Western Europe needs Russia
    • Demand trends in Europe: growth localized to the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas
    • European supply profile: supply simply will not suffice if demand rises
    • Russia is by far the largest of the few Western producers and only Norway shows any sign of growing
    • Four countries have emerged as the largest producers in a region where production has picked up since 2004
    • Supply trends in Europe: growth localized to the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas
    • Climate targets drive a move away from coal and oil: natural gas and renewables are primary alternatives
    • Can South East Europe develop its own energy market? How will this interact with Western needs?
    • Political involvement is rising because increased competition for gas may lead to national shortages
    • Energy shortages may be good indicators of natural gas growth hotspots
    • South East Europe faces large energy shortages due to weak infrastructure, especially as demand is likely to increase in time
    • Western Europe is struggling to meet its large gas demand without Russia’s help
    • South East Europe will see the fastest response to gas shortages, as infrastructure projects are expected online in 2010–12
      • Infrastructure developments are the key indicators of Europe’s future gas market
    • Pipelines are likely to swarm into Italy and Turkey, opening up the entire Mediterranean to natural gas
    • Major cross-border pipelines into Europe
    • South East Europe has sprawling infrastructure developments and Italy is likely to be a major hub
    • LNG is the future of natural gas transmission but, although pipelines have an essential role, they are experiencing delays
    • The importance of natural gas in national power generation: North Africa, Italy and Spain are key users of gas-fired power
    • Industry is often a driving force for natural gas demand: Egypt, Turkey, Iran and Slovakia are booming
    • Infrastructure is the main hindrance to a mature gas market, but Mediterranean Europe is keen to avoid this
    • Demand hot zones: key players in the future of natural gas demand – Iran emerging as a production giant
    • Supply hot zones: the UK is losing territory as a major gas consumer
    • Which countries will be the key players in Europe’s natural gas market to 2020?
    • Iran is unlikely to become a net exporter in the foreseeable future as its demand exceeds supply
    • Turkey is a key player, driven by its growing industry, its important location and its improving infrastructure
    • Turkey
    • Italy will play a key role in Europe, as shrinking supply means that imports will have to increase to meet demand
    • Italy
    • Egypt has excellent demand growth but, most importantly, it has steeper supply growth to feed Europe
    • Algeria shows very positive supply potential, although its domestic demand is less encouraging than Egypt’s
    • Libya emerged in the gas market in 2004 thanks to major gas finds, but even without further finds, Libya is key to Europe’s supply
    • France is at the heart of European gas demand, and the end of the recession should encourage renewed demand growth
    • Germany is not expected to rely too heavily on gas imports, with renewables taking a share of the burden
    • The Netherlands will play a smaller role in the gas market as production shrinks and demand remains stagnant
    • UK demand is growing relatively slowly, while supply is plummeting, creating an urgent need to find more imports
    • Russia’s profile is flat: supply should be enough to feed continuing demand growth, with large volumes left for export
    • Russia
    • Will any other factors affect the European natural gas market? Perhaps product and price will affect dynamics
  • APPENDIX
    • Forecast Data
    • Ask the analyst
    • Datamonitor consulting
    • Disclaimer
  • FIGURES
    • Figure: Total European natural gas consumption since 1990
    • Figure: Total Western natural gas consumption since 1990
    • Figure: Total South Eastern natural gas consumption since 1990
    • Figure: Total Western natural gas consumption Vs Total Western natural gas production without Russia
    • Figure: Map of European natural gas demand trends
    • Figure: Total European natural gas production since 1990
    • Figure: Total Western natural gas production since 1990
    • Figure: Total South Eastern natural gas production since 1990
    • Figure: Map of European natural gas supply trends
    • Figure: Causes of natural gas shortages in 2008/9: South East
    • Figure: Causes of natural gas shortages in 2008/9: West
    • Figure: Chart to show how prepared countries are to respond to their natural gas shortages
    • Figure: Map of major pipelines into Europe
    • Figure: List of the most important pipelines feeding European natural gas markets
    • Figure: Map of planned natural gas storage sites
    • Figure: Map of all LNG terminals in Europe
    • Figure: Datamonitor Ranking of how prepared Europe is for natural gas growth
    • Figure: Share of natural gas in power generation – scored ranking
    • Figure: Scale of Industrial natural gas consumption – scored ranking
    • Figure: Scale of natural gas infrastructure – scored ranking
    • Figure: Key European gas demand markets forecast to 2020
    • Figure: Key European gas supply markets forecast to 2020
    • Figure: Datamonitor forecast of Iran’s natural gas market to 2020
    • Figure: Datamonitor forecast of Turkey’s natural gas market to 2020
    • Figure: Datamonitor forecast of Italy’s natural gas market to 2020
    • Figure: Datamonitor forecast of Egypt’s natural gas market to 2020
    • Figure: Datamonitor forecast of Algeria’s natural gas market to 2020
    • Figure: Datamonitor forecast of Lybia’s natural gas market to 2020
    • Figure: Datamonitor forecast of France’s natural gas market to 2020
    • Figure: Datamonitor forecast of Germany’s natural gas market to 2020
    • Figure: Datamonitor forecast of Netherland’s natural gas market to 2020
    • Figure: Datamonitor forecast of UK’s natural gas market to 2020
    • Figure: Datamonitor forecast of Russia’s natural gas market to 2020
    • Figure: Forecast supply and demand data

Brief

Published by
Datamonitor
Published on
23 Mar 2010
Product code
BFEN0517
Pages
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