Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4

Key findings

4

Historical and forecast ethical sales performance

5

Therapeutic strategy

7

Launch and expiry outlook

10

Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies

12

Externalization strategy

13

Geographic strategy

14

Molecule type strategy

14

SWOT analysis

15

Strengths

16

Weaknesses

17

Opportunities

18

Threats

19

CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY

24

Key findings

24

Background

25

M&A history

25

Wellcome

25

Glaxo

25

Glaxo Wellcome

26

Beecham

26

Smith Kline

26

SmithKline Beecham

27

Key historical drug launches by component GSK companies

28

M&A strategy

29

R&D overview

33

Lifecycle management strategy

34

Current corporate structure

36

CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE

37

Key findings

37

Introduction

38

Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2002-05

38

Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set

39

Product analysis, 2002-05

41

Key growth drivers

42

Seretide/Advair

42

Lamictal

42

Avandia

42

Growth resistors

43

Seroxat/Paxil

43

Augmentin

43

Serevent

44

Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2002-05

44

Operating revenue/cost analysis

46

CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE

48

Key findings

48

Introduction

49

Revenue and growth rate, 2005-11

49

Product analysis, 2005-11

50

Growth drivers

56

Super Advair

56

Cervarix

57

Allermist

57

Avodart

58

Avandamet

58

Growth resistors

59

Seretide/Advair

59

Zofran

59

Wellbutrin

59

Imigran/Imitrex

60

Flixonase/Flonase

60

Therapy area analysis, 2005-11

62

Urology

66

Oncology

66

Diabetes & endocrinology

66

CNS

67

Infectious disease

68

Respiratory

69

Therapy area focus

70

Launches and expiries analysis, 2005-11

74

Launch portfolio

75

Core portfolio

78

Expiry portfolio

80

Launch/core/expiry configuration

83

Externalization analysis, 2005-11

87

Geographic analysis, 2005-11

93

Molecule type analysis, 2005-11

97

CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS

103

Key findings

103

Overview

104

Seretide/Advair

105

Overview

105

Sales forecast

106

Newsflow

106

Super Advair

111

Overview

111

Sales forecast

112

Newsflow

112

Allermist

114

Overview

114

Sales forecast

115

Newsflow

115

Flixonase/Flonase

117

Overview

117

Sales forecast

118

Newsflow

118

Avandia/Avandamet

120

Overview

120

Sales forecast

122

Newsflow

123

Wellbutrin

126

Overview

126

Sales forecast

127

Newsflow

127

Imigran/Imitrex

130

Overview

130

Sales forecast

131

Newsflow

131

Trexima

133

Overview

133

Sales forecast

134

Newsflow

134

Lamictal

136

Overview

136

Sales forecast

137

Newsflow

137

Cervarix

140

Overview

140

Sales forecast

141

Newsflow

142

Tykerb

145

Overview

145

Sales forecast

146

Newsflow

147

Zofran

149

Overview

149

Sales forecast

150

Newsflow

150

Avodart

152

Overview

152

Sales forecast

153

Newsflow

153

R&D pipeline

155

CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX

159

IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation

159

Abbreviations

162

Exchange rates

163

List of Tables

Table 1: Peer set overview

39

Table 2: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05

44

Table 3: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05

46

Table 4: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

50

Table 5: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

62

Table 6: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

75

Table 7: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

79

Table 8: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

81

Table 9: Externally developed portfolio, 2005-11 ($m)

87

Table 10: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

97

Table 11: Key products overview

104

Table 12: Seretide/Advair: overview

105

Table 13: Seretide/Advair: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

106

Table 14: Seretide/Advair: newsflow

106

Table 15: Super Advair: overview

111

Table 16: Super Advair: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

112

Table 17: Super Advair: newsflow

112

Table 18: Allermist: overview

114

Table 19: Allermist: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

115

Table 20: Allermist: newsflow

115

Table 21: Flixonase/Flonase: overview

117

Table 22: Flixonase/Flonase: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

118

Table 23: Flixonase: newsflow

118

Table 24: Avandia: overview

120

Table 25: Avandamet: overview

121

Table 26: Avandia: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

122

Table 27: Avandamet: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

122

Table 28: Avandia/Avandamet: newsflow

123

Table 29: Wellbutrin Franchise: overview

126

Table 30: Wellbutrin Franchise: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

127

Table 31: Wellbutrin Franchise: newsflow

127

Table 32: Imigran/Imitrex: overview

130

Table 33: Imigran/Imitrex: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

131

Table 34: Imigran/Imitrex: newsflow

131

Table 35: Trexima: overview

133

Table 36: Trexima: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

134

Table 37: Trexima: newsflow

134

Table 38: Lamictal: overview

136

Table 39: Lamictal: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

137

Table 40: Lamictal: newsflow

137

Table 41: Cervarix: overview

140

Table 42: Cervarix: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

141

Table 43: Cervarix: newsflow

142

Table 44: Tykerb: overview

145

Table 45: Tykerb: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

146

Table 46: Tykerb: newsflow

147

Table 47: Zofran: overview

149

Table 48: Zofran: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

150

Table 49: Zofran: newsflow

150

Table 50: Avodart: overview

152

Table 51: Avodart: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

153

Table 52: Avodart: newsflow

153

Table 53: GlaxoSmithKline's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration)

155

Table 54: Exchange rates, 2005

163

List of Figures

Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Roche and Big Pharma peer set

6

Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Big Pharma peer set (%), 2005

8

Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), GSK

10

Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set

11

Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2005

12

Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2011

13

Figure 7: SWOT analysis of GSK

15

Figure 8: M&A/divestment history

27

Figure 9: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2002-05

38

Figure 10: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2002-05

40

Figure 11: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2002-05

41

Figure 12: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05

45

Figure 13: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05

46

Figure 14: Operating cost ratio vs. peer set, 2002-05

47

Figure 15: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2005-11

49

Figure 16: Top five products by sales ($m), 2005

53

Figure 17: Top five products by sales ($m), 2005

55

Figure 18: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2005-11

56

Figure 19: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2005-11

61

Figure 20: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2005-11

64

Figure 21: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area (%), 2005-11

65

Figure 22: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2005-11

70

Figure 23: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2005

71

Figure 24: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2011

73

Figure 25: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11

77

Figure 26: Core products sales growth ($m), 2005-11

80

Figure 27: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11

82

Figure 28: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2005-11

84

Figure 29: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), GSK

85

Figure 30: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set

86

Figure 31: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2005-11

88

Figure 32: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2005-11

90

Figure 33: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005

91

Figure 34: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011

92

Figure 35: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11

93

Figure 36: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2005-11

94

Figure 37: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005

95

Figure 38: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011

96

Figure 39: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2005-11

98

Figure 40: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11

99

Figure 41: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005

100

Figure 42: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011

101

Figure 43: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2005

160

Figure 44: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2005-11

161